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内容大纲
民以食为天，吃饱饭是人民群众生存发展的最基本需求。近年来，国家坚持并完善最低收购价政策，结合生产成本等因素，连续提高稻谷、小麦最低收购价格，有效发挥了政策托底作用。在考虑到政策的影响机制前提下，本研究采用部分均衡模型，探讨了目前价格扶持政策的直接影响，并模拟了这些影响对粮食安全的有效性。本研究对国家粮食安全战略和粮食价格政策改革具有启发意义。 -
作者介绍
钱加荣，研究员，博士，中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所技术经济研究室副主任，中国技术经济学会农业技术经济分会理事，长期从事农业科技进步、农业生产率、油料产业经济等研究。主持各类研究课题30余项，其中国家社会科学基金项目2项、省部级课题3项（农业农村部、人力资源和社会保障部、教育部）；在Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics、AgriculturalEconomics、《农业经济问题》《农业技术经济》及日本主流农业经济类期刊，以第一作者或通讯作者发表论文20余篇，相关文章被中国人民大学复印报刊资料全文转载；出版学术专著2部；应邀参加国际农经大会、世界银行学术会议、亚洲农经大会等重要国际会议并作主旨报告10余次。 -
目录
Preface
Chapter 1 Introduction
1.1 Background
1.2 Literature review
1.2.1 Studies on grain price support policies
1.2.2 Studies on grain production costs
1.2.3 Studies on reform of grain price support policy
1.3 Justification
1.4 Objective
1.5 Research significance
1.6 Innovation
Chapter 2 Evolution of grain price policies in China
2.1 Market liberalization (1949-1952)
2.2 State monopoly (1953-1984)
2.3 Dual-track pricing system (1985-1992)
2.4 Protection price policy (1993-2003)
2.5 Minimum purchasing price policy (2004-present)
2.6 Summary
Chapter 3 Implementation of current price support policy and changes in grain market
3.1 Implementation of price support policy
3.1.1 Current grain price support policy in China
3.1.2 Policy implementing areas
3.1.3 Announce of grain support prices
3.1.4 Changes in grain support prices
3.2 Grain marketing changes after policy implementation
3.2.1 Grain price changes
3.2.2 Grain production costs increase
3.2.3 Grain production increases
3.2.4 Grain ending stocks increase
3.2.5 Grain imports increase
3.3 Summary
Chapter 4 Effect of price support policy on grain prices
4.1 Grain price changes
4.1.1 Changes in rice prices
4.1.2 Changes in wheat prices
4.2 Impact mechanism of price support policy
4.3 Empirical analysis on the effect of price support policy on grain prices
4.3.1 Model specification
4.3.2 Data
4.3.3 Estimated results
4.4 Summary
Chapter 5 Effect of price support policy on grain production costs
5.1 Grain price support policy and production costs in China
5.2 Methodology
5.2.1 Panel unit root test
5.2.2 Panel cointegration test
5.2.3 Panel long-run Granger causality
5.3 Data
5.4 Empirical Results
5.4.1 Unit root test
5.4.2 Panel Cointegration
5.4.3 Panel Causality test
5.5 Summary
Chapter 6 Grain supply and demand model for price policy simulation
6.1 Studies on partial equilibrium mode
6.2 Model structure
6.2.1 Production sector
6.2.2 Consumption sector
6.2.3 Trade sector
6.2.4 Price and cost linkages
6.2.5 Market clearance
6.3 Model estimation
6.3.1 Data
6.3.2 Estimated results
6.4 Summary
Chapter 7 Simulations on impact of price support policy
7.1 Simulation scenarios
7.2 Simulation results
7.2.1 Changes in grain marketing
7.2.2 Food security indicators
7.2.3 Grain production revenue
7.3 Summary
Chapter 8 Conclusions and Policy Recommendations
8.1 Conclusions
8.1.1 Main problems with the price support policy
8.1.2 Grain price support policy determines grain market price
8.1.3 Grain price support policy increases grain production costs
8.1.4 Effect of price support policy adjustment on grain supply and demand
8.1.5 Effect of price support policy adjustment on food security
8.1.6 Effect of price support policy adjustment on farmers' grain income
8.2 Policy Recommendations
8.2.1 Maintain an appropriate level of grain price support to firmly guard the absolute food security
8.2.2 Implement producer subsidies to ensure the grain income is not reduced
8.2.3 Remove the mechanism of setting price support referringto production costs
8.2.4 Implement price controls on agricultural input factors
8.2.5 Implement differentiated grain price support policies to promote agricultural supply-side structural reform
References
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